Lying as a Fiscal Stimulus Program and How It Impacts Publishers
by Martin Foner
Yes, sorry to have to report that the Government actually tells little white lies, ok, big nasty ones, to the public for its own purposes. No, this isn’t a government rant… just the background to help you understand why, in the middle of a terrible recession and possible deflation (or hyper inflation depending on which tin hat you’re wearing today) small company owners, and some very large company CEOs and their kin, are out buying up everything that isn’t nailed down.
Not particularly bright in any situation, in my mind, even less bright when deflation is a serious potential. But, that aside, as the government would say… here are the numbers… and then they rattle off a bunch of figures that, in a month, will be adjusted up or down by a zillion percentage points.
They somehow have the media convinced, who in turn are trying to convince us, the consumers and citizens (we are far more important as consumers than citizens), that everything is just fine… prosperity is just around the corner, and we can now go back to our spending, credit hungry ways, and thus pull the economy out of its nasty funk.
Interestingly, business owners in particular are drinking this Kool Aid in huge quantities, and then going out and buying up all the distressed and ‘low priced’ assets they can find… and really, in the fear that six months from now when the recovery is in full force, companies won’t be this cheap to purchase.
Since I have a vested interest in selling companies… I won’t dissuade them. But, it is creating a little bubble at this time. Merger and acquisition (M & A) activity is up 150-300% over this time a year ago, based on the couple survey watchers and number crunchers who do this work… in media fields, publisher fields… all related activities including Internet companies. Again, the thinking is this is the time between the disaster and the recovery… asset companies who survive are ok, but not yet overpriced.
So, for publishers considering selling… THIS is the moment. For how long, likely at least until Jan 1, when capital gains tax rates change… not a big incentive to sell something in 2010, but enough to create a consideration. But not likely much, if at all, after that.
And when will the next good turn come about for selling? I am in agreement with the more conservative economists when they say 2014 to 2016, depending on how fast things stabilize. Just about forever, and who know what will happen when good old uncle starts telling stories again?
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